The Collapse of Canada-US Trade Talks: Respite for Now

A graphic representation combining the flags of the United States and Canada, featuring the American flag with stars and stripes on the left and a red maple leaf on a white background on the right.

Image: Wikimedia Commons (Flanker)

As the Canada-US trade talks went down to the wire last week, working against the artificial deadline set by Donald Trump (with a three-day extension in order to finalize the “deal” he announced on social media, a deal that was about as final as the numerous deals he has announced with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz), I like many Canadians had a foreboding sense of trepidation. Was I worried that the two sides would not come to agreement? No, I was concerned that they would, and that the price of reaching that deal would involve unacceptable concessions by Canada.

Not only that, but the deal would also be about as solid as ice cream in a hot sun. The US would require Canada to change or repeal legislation while it would simply sign an executive agreement that could be rescinded at any time. And that is precisely what would happen next. Mark Carney referred to US commitments being written “in pencil”. One of the supposed US concessions as a result of this deal was agreeing to begin formal negotiations on USMCA/CUSMA renewal. Therefore, Canada’s last and best offer in the interim trade negotiation–that were a necessary attempt to avoid additional 50 percent retaliatory tariffs on a range of Canadian goods as well as to obtain a roll back of sectoral tariffs imposed by the US in violation of CUSMA on steel, aluminum, autos, and wood and wood products–would have become the starting point for US demands for “more” when the formal negotiations got underway. Having seen how little the US was prepared to concede in terms of existing measures, but more precisely how much they wanted for the minimal concessions offered, was surely a wake-up call for the Carney government.

Carney’s last-minute decision to walk away was clearly the right political move from a Canadian perspective, especially with several by-elections coming up in a matter of weeks. Opposition Leader Pierre Polievre’s prepared notes accusing Carney of selling out were quickly chucked aside while Poilievre scrambled to climb aboard the Team Canada bandwagon. Carney’s “elbows up” mantra that got him unexpectedly elected last year was starting to wear a bit thin after unilateral concessions to the US like the eleventh-hour abandonment of the long-planned Digital Sales Tax on large online platforms, a concession that achieved nothing. That said, it is easy to talk tough, but not so easy to accept the responsibility for the economic punishment that may result. Any responsible leader owes it to their constituents and businesses to try to resolve trade issues without resorting to confrontation and retaliation. Canada gave it a good shot this time around, but in the end the price to be paid was just too high. In part, we have Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to thank for that.

Lutnick, one of Trump’s billionaire appointments, along with presidential advisor Peter Navarro, is a firm believer in tariffs and in using tariffs to change established trading patterns. Inconvenient trade agreements that constrain this behaviour (such as the USMCA/CUSMA) are to be bypassed or ignored. Lutnick has a particular bee in his bonnet about the Canadian automotive industry, which he essentially wants to drive out of business. There is no question that auto assembly in Canada is dependent on imports of parts from the US and the export of assembled vehicles to US consumers. But the Canadian industry was not established to export to the US; it evolved that way on the basis of a bargain. It has been around for well over a century and was originally established to serve the Canadian market, protected by high tariffs from US imports. Over the years, US companies purchased the Canadian manufacturers, and the industry became more integrated, culminating in the 1965 Auto Pact. That agreement was rolled into the first Canada-US Free Trade Agreement, which morphed into NAFTA and eventually CUSMA. The essence of the deal was that for every vehicle imported duty free into Canada, the automakers had to build one vehicle in Canada. That vehicle might be sold into the Canadian market but could also be sent south to the US, duty free. It was an arrangement that worked well for both sides and has strengthened the North American industry, which needs all the help it can get in the face of Asian and European imports. But Lutnick and Trump don’t understand and don’t like this arrangement. “We don’t want cars made in Canada”, Trump is reported to have said. As the interim Section 338 (referring to Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, obscure legislation resorted to by USTR to impose retaliatory tariffs on Canada) negotiations came down to the wire last week with discussions centering on a reduction in the 25 percent auto tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Canadian assembled vehicles (these are already a violation of CUSMA terms), Lutnick and Navarro reportedly intervened to minimize the value to Canada of the tariff reduction by excluding medium and heavy trucks from the “concessions”. This was a move aimed specifically at hampering truck production in Canada, one of the few sectors where North American vehicles dominate in both the US and Canadian markets. Lutnick’s carve-out was enough to help tip the scales, forcing the Canadian side to walk away. Thank you, Howard. You inadvertently did Canada a service.

Had Lutnick not introduced this deal-breaker, Canada might have swallowed the poison. Ontario Premier Doug Ford was a key factor too. If the deal was not sufficiently good for the Canadian auto industry, he would have refused to put US booze back on the shelves of the LCBO, (the Liquor Control Board of Ontario), reportedly the single largest global importer of liquor and wine (although this is contested—Costco might be bigger!). Mind you, there were a couple of other deal-breakers on the table as well, which shows either how greedy the US negotiators were, or how little they understand Canadian realities. Surely anyone who haa studied a modicum of Canadian history would know that attacking bilingual labelling in Quebec and support for French language music through discoverability and other requirements is a total non-starter for any federal government. Quebec also has the SAQ (Société des alcools du Québec) card to play. The final deal-breaker cited by Carney in his news conference the day after the deal collapsed was an attempt by the US to constrain Canada’s ability to freely negotiate trade deals with third parties. It is worth noting that Canada already agreed to this with respect to China when it signed the CUSMA deal in 2018. (Article 32.10), but Carney stressed that Canadian sovereignty is not on the table.

In his explanation of the decision to walk away, Carney also cited the need to protect Canadian culture, although he was non-specific. There is no question that cultural groups and content industries in Canada, such as the press and Canadian content producers, were becoming increasing anxious they might be thrown under the bus. There were reports the US was targeting both the Online Streaming Act (OSA) and the Online News Act (ONA). The enactment of the ONA (aka Bill C-18) in 2023 resulted in Meta blocking the posting of (most) Canadian news content to Facebook and Instagram but led to Google agreeing to contribute $100 million annually to support Canadian journalism. Paul Deegan, CEO of News Media Canada warned earlier last week that if the ONA was given up as a bargaining chip in the trade negotiations, the impact on journalism in Canada would be “catastrophic”.

The threats to the future of the ONA in Canada are ironic given that Australia, which was the inspiration for Canada’s legislation, has just passed new legislation (the News Bargaining Incentive) designed to address the dodge employed by Meta in Canada. When Australia introduced its initial News Media Bargaining Code, Meta reluctantly went along with it and struck a number of content deals with Australian media. It subsequently announced it would not renew them as they expire. In Canada, Meta dug in and delisted postings from Canadian media (although there have been some controversial exceptions) in order to avoid being subject to the legislation that required them to reach deals with Canadian media to license content. To address this, the new Australian legislation imposes a 2.5 percent tax on the advertising revenues of the targeted platforms (Meta, Google, TikTok and LinkedIn) unless they strike agreements with news media providers. The tax would be paid into a fund accessible to local news outlets. The tax amount is higher than payments under the voluntary agreements the platforms are expected to reach, providing an additional incentive for them to reach or renew content licensing agreements. It would be hard to see Australia successfully pursue the goal of requiring the big platforms to contribute to production of the news content they use while Canada, which consciously followed the Australian example, retreats from this objective.

As for the Online Streaming Act, recall that in recent weeks the Carney government notified the CRTC that the foreign streamer contributions to the production of Canadian media and content mandated by the Commission will need to be revisited. Was the OSA part of the recently suspended Section 338 negotiations? No doubt about it. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in a midweek tweet congratulating Trump on the “deal” that was seemingly about to be finalized, said it would include “comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment, and many important provisions that will continue to protect our market and American workers…”

What “digital trade alignment” might include was not specified but there was speculation it could encompass a commitment to never introduce a DST, reversal of the Online News Act, data governance limits and limitation or elimination of streaming payments. Now, with the collapse of the talks, none of that will happen—for now. However, the 50% Sec 338 tariffs are now in effect and Americans will be paying much more for Canadian honey, salt and toilet paper, among other things, assuming those items will still be on US shelves.

Canada’s decision to terminate the trade talks last Friday really settled nothing, other than to confirm that the US goal is to bring the country fully into its orbit as a satellite state. Carney and Canadians are determined this will not happen and have cards to play. Those cards relate to the impact of Trump’s decisions on the US economy and US consumers, and the potential impact of these decisions on the midterm elections. Canada would do best to take its time and continue to try to find allies within the US. Whether the announced intention of retaliating against Trump’s Section 338 tariffs on a “dollar for dollar” basis is the right approach is another question, but the intent will be to inflict targeted pain on selected US export sectors in order to build pressure on the Administration. The provincial liquor bans were designed with this in mind and have been remarkably effective.

Eventually Canada and the US will need to get to the USMCA/CUSMA negotiating table. CUSMA is still in force notwithstanding the sectoral US tariffs that violate its provisions on specious “national security” grounds. It is a Congressionally approved treaty and unless renounced, which the Trump administration clearly does not want to do, it remains in force unless renegotiated. When renegotiated, and ratified by Congress, it will provide stronger guarantees of predictability than the back-of-the-envelope trade deals that Trump and USTR have been forcing on trading partners. However, if and when those negotiations take place, the issues that led to the collapse of the Section 338 talks will still be on the table.

Canada’s cultural and content industries don’t have the political clout of the dairy industry, which for decades has managed to put its self-interest before that of the rest of the economy and Canadian consumers, or the auto industry, but maintaining economically viable Canadian voices in media, broadcasting, film and literature is part of preserving sovereignty. How that is best done is the topic of ongoing discussion and debate. For now, the OSA, the ONA and Canada’s other digital legislation remains intact. The sector may have dodged a bullet for now but needs to remain alert. It’s never over until its over.

© Hugh Stephens, 2026. All Rights Reserved.

Digital Platforms and News Content: Australia Takes Off the Gloves

Image: Shutterstock

Canada infamously tried to take a leaf from Australia’s book in dealing with large internet platforms, like Google and Meta, that benefit from news media content without paying for it. In 2023, Canada introduced the Online News Act (Bill C-18), a Canadian version of Australia’s News Media Bargaining Code. The Australian approach, first introduced through legislation in late 2021, was initially very successful. Rod Sims, the author of the Code from his then position as Commissioner of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), testified before the Canadian House of Commons Committee studying C-18, pointing to the success of the initiative in generating some AUD200 million in financial support for Australian media annually. Although there had been pushback by both Google and Meta in Australia, both eventually came onside, especially after the spectacular flop of Meta’s news blackout campaign. The threat of being designated under the Australian code was enough to get the two platforms to negotiate agreements with most Australian media in the form of funding to support journalistic output. As a result of the agreements reached, neither platform was designated under the Code and thus was not subject to “final offer” arbitration imposed by the ACCC.

Canada thought it would “improve” on the Australian precedent by making the process somewhat more transparent in terms of funding offers, and by requiring the platforms to self-designate. Whether it was the tweaked Canadian legislation or, more likely, a reappraisal of the value and cost of the agreements (particularly when it became apparent that the Australian precedent was likely to be followed elsewhere, with Canada being the first out of the gate), both platforms dug in. Meta in particular refused to engage with the Canadian process and declared that it would “comply” with the legislation by removing all links to Canadian media. That is not what the Government of Canada or Canadian media had in mind when Bill C-18 was introduced. Meta has held that line, although the extent to which it is fully complying is under review by the regulator, the CRTC. Various workarounds to allow news content to appear on Facebook have been employed by both Facebook users and some news providers, and META seems willling to turn a blind eye. Why that doesn’t trigger the Online News Act requirement to reach funding agreements with news content providers is a question that cries out for a response. (CRTC take note: We are waiting).

Google was slightly more amenable to striking a deal with the Government of Canada, agreeing that in return for exemption from the legislation, it would contribute $100 million (CAD) annually for five years (adjusted to inflation) to a fund that would provide support to qualified Canadian media enterprises. The $100 million subsumes existing contributions Google was already making to some Canadian journalism programs, so the net result is not $100 million in new money. Google has now begun to disburse this funding through the Canadian Journalism Collective (CJC), an entity established by what could legitimately be called “non mainstream media”, i.e. many small digital startups. The CJC was selected by Google as the executing agency for its funding, thus snubbing the organization representing the major media enterprises, News Media Canada. There are likely to be disputes over whether some of the “little guys” actually qualify as bona fide journalists. The more mouths there are to feed, the less there is for each supplicant and the big players are not happy to see the Google revenue stream diluted.

Meanwhile, back in Oz, Meta has announced that once they expire it will not renew the media agreements it reached back in 2022. Many will end this year. It appears Meta has decided it will adopt a consistent global position by insisting that news media content provides it with no value. Zero. None. And therefore it will not pay a cent. In part, this is to head off similar moves in the US where news media providers would like to bring in an arrangement similar to that instituted in Australia, or Canada. A separate initiative in California ended up with an outcome close to the one in Canada, with Google reluctantly agreeing to contribute funding to local journalism while Meta walked away. The Australian government has seen where this is heading, and it is not happy. It is taking the gloves off.

The Albanese government has announced it will be taking measures to require that any internet company that refuses to negotiate with publishers or removes news from its platform will be forced to pay, regardless. This is the big stick to counter META. What happens next is a consultation process, beginning now, to determine how what is being called a “news bargaining incentive” will actually be applied, retroactive to January 1. All digital platforms with annual revenues of AUD250 million annually will likely be subject to it. This will expand the net to include ByteDance (Tik Tok) and Microsoft (Bing, LinkedIn) as well as META and Google. Google has already said it will carry on and will renew the deals it signed with Australian media, allowing it to be exempted under the Code. META is not backing down.

The so-called “incentive” will take the form of a discounted penalty or fine. The initial proposal is that companies that sign deals amounting to 90% or more of the total of the fine that would otherwise be levied will be exempt. In other words, find ways to strike deals that in the end will save you money. Simply refusing to carry news content, as META has done in Canada, will not let a designated platform off the hook, a significant variation from the Canadian legislation, which many have criticized as being flawed. Rod Sims, now back in academia, fully supports the new incentive initiative. It appears the only way META can avoid payment is by closing its business in Australia. Given META’s track record, this might even be a card it is prepared to play. One can expect it to pull out all the stops to oppose the “incentive”, from legal challenges to threatening a pullout to seeking to invoke the support of the Trump Administration.

What position will the Trump Administration adopt? Donald Trump certainly has no love for the news media, as evidenced by his current and threatened lawsuits against US media outlets for providing coverage he doesn’t like. On the other hand, NewsCorp, which has strong holdings in Australia, has in recent years built its reputation and business model on catering to Trump’s vanity and desires. Trump also is not fan of Facebook, but Mark Zuckerberg has smelled the coffee and has donated a $1 million to Trump’s inauguration, after having kissed the ring by dining with the President-elect at Mar-a-Lago. So in the end, who knows where the US government will be on this question? All I can say to the Australian government’s expressed intention to deal head-on with META’s scorched-earth tactics is “good on ya, mate”. I wish Canada had the gumption to do the same.

© Hugh Stephens, 2025. All Rights Reserved.

As Journalism Withers, “Garbage” News Takes Over: An Unexpected Result of the Facebook/Instagram News Blackout in Canada

Image: Shutterstock (with AI assist: Note AI misspelling)

The sad, slow decline of professional journalism continues. The most recent manifestation of this in Canada is the announcement that the Saltwire Group, publishers of The Chronicle Herald of Halifax and a number of other daily and weekly papers in Atlantic Canada, is on the ropes with $90 million in debt. The Chronicle Herald has been around for 150 years! Post Media has made a buyout offer of $1 million (less than the cost of the average home in Vancouver). This will keep some of the papers publishing, no doubt with significant staff cutbacks and, reportedly, ending of union contracts and termination of company pension plans. But there seems to be little choice; accept the nasty medicine or expire. Post Media will most likely keep a minimal local newsroom and fill the papers with repurposed content from its flagship daily National Post. Local news will suffer. This is a story that is being replicated all over North America.

Meanwhile small, local online news outlets have been hit by Facebook’s blackout of news for Canadian readers as a result of the passage of the Online News Act, Bill C-18. In the case of New Brunswick’s River Valley Sun, according to the CBC, the free-to-readers, ad-supported, all-digital Sun depended on Facebook to reach its audience as well as to obtain local news that could be added to the online journal. The owner is quoted as saying, “…we started basically from scratch, and because Facebook was free it was wonderful”.

That is the flip side of the narrative accusing Facebook of using uncompensated news content, developed at great expense by professional journalists working for media companies, to attract and hold users’ interest thus keeping them on Meta’s sites (Facebook, Instagram) longer to be able to expose them to more ads. Not so wonderful. That is what C-18 was supposed to rectify, along the lines of the News Media Bargaining Code instituted earlier in Australia, requiring the big social media platforms (in this case Google and Meta) to make a contribution to news gathering if they used news content. Failure to do so would result in compulsory and binding arbitration. While Google ducked and weaved, it eventually agreed to put $100 million into a pot to be doled out to various news organizations by the Canadian Journalism Collective as long as it was given an exemption from the legislation, whereas Meta went to the wall and took down news links rather than contribute. The River Valley Sun is collateral damage, although it could possibly tap into the Google funding if it employs any fulltime journalists (a minimum of two is required).

The Online News Act did result in bringing some additional funding to news outlets, large and small, somewhat along the lines of Australia’s initiative through its News Media Bargaining Code (which was not actually invoked because the two platforms ended up striking content deals with most Australian media). However, it is clear that Meta has had buyer’s remorse about its Australian deals because they are busy unwinding those commitments in Oz. It remains to be seen how Australia will deal with this. There have been some suggestions that the Australian government may be looking at options to force Meta to carry news, and then subject them to the Code. Will Meta get a pass—in which case Google could rightly ask why it should comply—or will news also end up being blocked on Facebook and Instagram for Australian users as well as Canadian?

If that happens, consumers will have to find other ways to get access to news that is normally shared on the Facebook platform. Going to the actual websites of news organizations is one good way to do this. What a novel idea! However, many younger consumers won’t do this; if news is on a social media feed, they might read it, but they will not proactively search for it. Facebook also remains an important go-to source for breaking local news related to weather and climate-change events such as flooding and fires. Hosts of Facebook pages distributing information on the local impact of natural disasters have had to resort to workarounds such as posting photos of news articles on Meta or copy-pasting articles into their Facebook page. (Ironically, such actions could possibly constitute violations of copyright whereas posting a link is not). But workarounds are not going to help news outlets like the River Valley Sun.

Perhaps the journal should take a leaf out of the book of Just Bins, a waste recycling firm in Regina, SK, a garbage collection company that seems to have picked up news distribution as a sideline, benefiting from the free online exposure. It does not distribute mainstream media; it creates its own news content that it features on its website, even employing its own drone footage. Because it is not a news site, it is not blocked by Facebook. It has edgily reported on traffic accidents, problems at City Hall, homelessness, and even suicides. In fact, it was voted best online news source in a recent poll taken for the annual “Best of Regina” awards. Not that it takes its journalism role all that seriously—and that is part of the problem—since fact-checking, journalistic ethics and balanced reporting seem to have been put out with the recycling bins. Just Bins has taken the old adage of “garbage in-garbage out” to new heights. This is yet another byproduct of the Facebook ban, a further kick in the shins for reputable journalism. If the River Valley Sun could just sell pizza on the side, maybe they could slip through the Facebook net and post online as Just Bins is doing.

Just Bins is not the only quasi-news source that has managed to squeeze through the Meta news blockage. This week Howard Law’s media blog MediaPolicy.ca reports on the Meta news ban (“The leaky Meta news ban is roiling Canadian journalism”) and highlights a study conducted by researchers at McGill University on the impact of the ban a year after it went into effect. The McGill study notes that many Canadians continue to use Meta as a source of “news” despite the ban. Three-quarters of the Canadian public is apparently unaware of the ban, yet Canadian news outlets have lost 85% of their engagement on Facebook and Instagram and almost one third of local news outlets are now inactive on social media. How this apparent contradiction is possible is explained in part by workarounds such as those referred to above, but also because Meta allows sites that declare themselves to be non-news outlets to continue to post content. Mediapolicy.ca discusses the case of Narcity.com, a “chain of local news and lifestyle websites” that has recently been reinstated on Meta. Narcity was denied government tax credits as a “Qualified Canadian Journalism Organization” (QCJO) because of insufficient first-hand reporting. With this rejection in hand, it then applied to Meta to be reinstated on its platform on the basis that if it didn’t qualify for QCJO credits, it must not be a news provider under the Online News Act, C-18. It’s a clever argument, one that possibly the River Valley Sun could take advantage of.

One can argue that Canada’s attempt to require Google and Meta to enter into good faith negotiations with news providers to license content was either a valiant and imaginative attempt to come to grips with the painful decline of journalism, riding to some extent on what at the time appeared to be the successful coattails of Australia’s initiative, or a colossal miscalculation and poor timing as the platforms decided to draw a line in the sand in case media interests in the US decided to follow suit. Google and Meta will do everything possible to avoid going down that road. If sending a signal to US media interests requires them to call the bluff of the Canadian government, they will do so.

In the end, the results are mixed. Legitimate media in Canada, big and small, will get some help from Google’s contribution, although the amount Google is providing through the Canadian Journalism Collective has to be offset against pre-existing voluntary agreements that both Google and Meta had with some journalistic outlets. The Meta subsidies are now gone, and the previous Google contributions have been folded into the $100 million that Google has agreed to put on the table. Meanwhile, in Regina, Just Bins has found the garbage loophole, serving up its version of trashy journalism and news on Meta, going where bona fide journalists cannot. Sad.

© Hugh Stephens, 2024. All Rights Reserved.