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In last year’s annual retrospective, I commented that just about the only significant copyright story in town was the impact of AI on copyrighted content. There were three primary dimensions, unauthorized use of copyrighted content for AI training, copyright infringing outputs produced by AI platforms and whether works produced by or with AI qualify for copyright protection. The first two elements, especially the unauthorized use of copyrighted content for AI training, continues to be the big story in 2025. Little has changed in terms of the fundamental issues, although this year there were two key court rulings in the US that provided some legal guidance. These were the Bartz v Anthropic and Kadrey et al v META cases, both decided within hours in the same courthouse in San Francisco, but by different judges. As I noted in a blog post at the time, in July, the results were a very mixed bag. (Hold the Champagne: The Two AI Training/Copyright Decisions Released in the US Last Week Were a Mixed Bag for AI Developers). While both judges found the copying of copyrighted works to train AI algorithms “transformational”, and thus tending toward fair use, in the Anthropic case the AI developer was castigated for initially using two pirate data bases (Library Genesis, aka LibGen, and Pirate Library Mirror, aka PiLiMi), as source material. This use threatened to result in hundreds of millions of dollars in statutory damages for authors whose works were included in these databases (if they had registered their works with the US Copyright Office). Thus, it was with no great surprise that the world learned in September that Anthropic had agreed to a $1.5 billion settlement to bring an end to the case. (When the End Does Not Justify the Means: Anthropic’s $1.5 Billion Lesson). In the Kadrey case, the judge suggested the plaintiffs should have made a stronger market dilution argument, which might have overridden the transformation finding. (New AI works produced based on unauthorized inputs of copyrighted works will devalue and dilute the market for the original works). That theory has yet to be fully tested.
While the Anthropic settlement seemed large in absolute terms, many criticized it as just another cost of doing business that failed to protect authors. But that is what licensing is, a cost of doing business. The damages could have been larger than the settlement, so Anthropic made a strategic decision to settle. Given the precedent, META must be worried given the clear evidence that its top executives gave the green light to use LibGen for training purposes despite internal warnings about the risk of doing so. (Is it Ethical to Use Pirated Content for Commercial Purposes? META Thinks So). The Anthropic decision gave impetus to ongoing licensing discussions between AI developers and content owners, especially large corporate rightsholders, like news media, music labels and big studios, such as Disney. The list of companies striking significant licensing deals with AI developers, either for AI training or outputs containing derivative content, is rapidly growing. Meanwhile lawsuits, such as New York Times v OpenAI, continue in lieu of settlement agreements.
Outside the US where the “fair use” doctrine along with its transformation interpretation doesn’t apply, there are also lawsuits against AI developers (in Canada and India for example). However, in these “fair dealing” countries AI developers are in a potentially tighter spot. In many countries there is no statutory exception to allow unauthorized access to copyrighted content for AI training, commonly known as text and data mining (TDM). Where there is such an exception (as in the UK or EU), it is confined to very specific circumstances such as non-commercial research, or else it requires that rightsholders be provided with an opt-out mechanism. Given these inconvenient facts (and their inability to rely on fair use arguments outside the US), AI developers have been mounting a full-court press to have TDM exceptions introduced into national legislation using the pretexts that a) everyone is doing it (which is certainly not true) and b) if governments don’t create an exception allowing TDM for AI training, all those AI development funds will flow elsewhere. In other words, throw rightsholders and creative industries under the bus in order to chase some ephemeral AI research funds. Australia has just rejected this binary approach, announcing that a TDM exception will not be part of its review of copyright laws to help address the needs of the AI industry. A number of Asian countries are reviewing the need for a TDM exception, but are rightly being very cautious not wanting to sacrifice the vital cultural and economic interests their creative sectors represent. Canada is another country without a TDM exception, a situation that has made OpenAI jittery since they are being sued in Ontario Superior Court by a consortium of Canadian news publishers for copyright infringement, bypassing Technical Protection Measures (protected paywalls) and breach of contract. OpenAI has been trying to get the case moved to the US by challenging the jurisdiction of the Canadian court, so far unsuccessfully.
Just as lawsuits in the US are providing the impetus for settlement discussions between AI developers and rightsholders, lawsuits against the AI industry outside the US will potentially have the same effect. The big story of 2025 is how many licensing agreements have been already reached. Even META, which in Canada and more recently Australia insisted it doesn’t need news content and would not pay for it, has reached a news media licensing deal with a number of companies including USA Today, People, CNN, Fox News, The Daily Caller, Washington Examiner and Le Monde. Back in 2021 META agreed to license news content in Australia as a result of the introduction of the Australian News Media Bargaining Code, but when Canada enacted a similar provision, it refused to do so and evaded the obligation to pay for local news by blocking it on its Facebook and Instagram platforms. Subsequently, when the Australian Code came around for renewal this year, META balked. Australia is still contemplating its next steps and while it is treading carefully, indications are that it is prepared to move against META.
One reason why Australia is moving carefully is the Trump factor. Trump’s erratic behaviour including the tearing up of the established rules of international trade is the second big copyright theme of 2025, after AI’s predations and encroachments. Not that Donald Trump knows much about copyright or understands it, but in his broadsides against trading partners and the international trading system, copyright industries inevitably become caught up in his web. Whether it is threatening tariffs on movies filmed outside the US, regardless of the fact that the largest slice of the box office comes from non-US sources and many films are either co-financed by offshore producers or require non-US settings (Trump’s Threatened Tariffs on Hollywood Films Produced Outside the US: The Medicine Could be Worse than the Disease), or taking aim at the policies of other countries that may have a digital or content component, like the Digital Services Tax in Canada,and its Online News Act, Trump is unpredictable and often off-target. His initial tariff measures against Canada included everything from steel to autos, based on the specious “national security” argument that there was a flood of fentanyl coming into the US from north of the border (actually about 0.2% of the total in 2024), but so far he has not specifically targetted the cultural industries. That may all change as the negotiations for renewal of the CUSMA/USMCA begin in the new year and as Canada struggles to redefine “Canadian content”.
There are industry groups in the US that claim provisions of the Online Streaming Act violate the terms of the CUSMA/USMCA by discriminating against US content providers, and that the only way Canada can justify these provisions is to invoke the cultural exception clause of the CUSMA. This would allow the US to retaliate in any sector with equivalent commercial effect. I have questioned this interpretation but we will probably never know who is right because the Online Streaming measures are unlikely to be challenged by the US prior to the start of CUSMA/USMCA renegotiations in early 2026. In those negotiations, the US will almost certainly take aim at various elements of cultural legislation like Online News and Online Streaming, along with other issues like dairy supply management. These may or may not be subject to negotiation as part of the renewal of CUSMA, if indeed the US or Canada are prepared to renew it.
Even if Canadian actions are consistent with the terms of the Agreement, this is essentially meaningless given the way the Trump Administration operates, as demonstrated earlier this year when Trump overrode various tariff free commitments in the Agreement on the basis of unilaterally declared national security concerns. These included the specious fentanyl trafficking claim mentioned above. Not only did the miniscule numbers give the lie to this assertion but the US claim somehow made Canada responsible for ensuring the security of the US border. As professor Fen Hampson of Carleton University has eloquently pointed out, the fate of CUSMA/USMCA depends not so much on where the economic interests of the United States lie, but on the fickle and unpredictable whims of Donald Trump personally.
As we head into 2026, there will be more Donald Trump uncertainty affecting copyright industries, more AI disruption, more lawsuits, more settlements and more licensing agreements to avoid lawsuits and settlements. That’s a pretty safe prediction based on looking back on 2025.
© Hugh Stephens, 2025. All Rights Reserved.










