Donald Trump’s Punitive Tariffs on Canada: A Personal Commentary

Image: CBC

This blog post is an “extra”. It is tangentially copyright-related (after all, this is supposed to be a copyright blog) but I will admit it’s essentially a non-copyright personal opinion piece. I was incentivized to write it as a result of various conversations I have had with friends and colleagues during this past weekend about the impact and rationale behind Donald Trump’s punitive tariffs on Canada.

Do President Trump’s 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada (except for oil and gas which will be tariffed at 10%) have anything to do with copyright? The short answer is “probably not”, although judging from the vindictiveness of the President toward Canada, as well as an apparent inability to understand how international business is actually conducted, I wouldn’t rule out him finding some excuse to make life difficult for US studios that produce films in Canada, or for Canada to retaliate against US content providers as it desperately searches for a way to get the message through to anyone south of the border who may have Trump’s ear. In either case this would be a mistake. Hollywood is an unlikely source of influence on the President, although Silicon Valley might be a more likely prospect. Both Canada and the US film and TV industry have benefited from having the option of producing in Canada. It’s called win/win, a formula that seems alien to the current President.

So, there could be (but hopefully not) an impact on copyright industries from the fallout from the economic war Trump has declared on Canada, and the inevitable retaliation. (Canada’s initial retaliation list focussed primarily on foodstuffs, appliances and clothing, not affecting copyright industries). Economically, retaliation is a bad idea, inflicting pain on your trading partner but also causing a degree of self-harm. However, in the world of trade negotiations, it is inevitable and frankly is the only thing that Canada can do other than to turn the other cheek and say, “Hit me again”.

However, beyond the world of copyright that I usually write about lies another world, the world of international trade and security, a space in which alliances, cooperation, and mutual respect among trading partners are important. It is what is happening in this world that I want to talk about briefly today, from a personal perspective.

The announcement of the Trump tariffs on Canada has to be just about the most short-sighted policy announcement imaginable. As the Wall Street Journal put it, this is the “dumbest trade war in history”. Not only that, it is a blatant violation of US trade and treaty obligations under the USMCA/CUSMA. What is driving Trump to punish Canada, other than personal spite, is hard to fathom.

Forty years ago, Canada embarked on the path of economic cooperation and integration with the United States through the negotiation of the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement, overcoming decades of suspicion and various failed attempts to establish Canadian manufacturing in a small market behind high protective tariff walls. I was involved in a minor way, buried in the trade bureaucracy of the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, and later the Trade Negotiations Office. It was a big roll of the dice for Canada, giving up quite a bit of economic sovereignty in exchange for agreed rules on market access. Both sides negotiated hard, but at the eleventh hour finally got to “yes”. It was a big step forward, promising greater prosperity on both sides of the border. We believed that when the US made commitments, it would respect them. Silly us.

There were economic advantages for Canada to develop an integrated market with the United States, but there were also important advantages for the US and US business. Production could be specialized where it was most economically and geographically advantageous to do so, supply chains could be integrated, tariffs would be (mostly) eliminated and the border would not impede business. Within the agreed rules, people and goods could move freely. US auto companies in particular, (Ford, GM and (then) Chrysler), were particular beneficiaries, but so were consumers in both countries. The rules around this grand bargain were ratified in the form of a treaty, later expanded to include Mexico. The objective was to minimize disruptions and where disagreements occurred, to settle them through a fair and impartial dispute settlement process in a timely way. This process was renewed under the USMCA/CUSMA, signed by Donald Trump in 2018. What Trump is doing now is effectively tearing up the commitments he made and which have been respected since the late 1980s, through both Republican and Democratic administrations.

The legal excuse being put forward for this trade war is the “national emergency” of fentanyl and illegal migrants. The USMCA does have provision for a national security override, Article 32.2.1.(b) which says;

“Nothing in this Agreement shall be construed to..preclude a Party from applying measures that it considers necessary for the…protection of its own essential security interests.”

By invoking fentanyl and migration as “essential security interests” to justify his actions, Donald Trump is seeking to manufacture a pretext–at least insofar as Canada is concerned–allowing him to renege on US trade commitments enshrined in a Congressionally-ratified treaty that he signed. If there is a crisis, the problem does not lie with Canada. Last year exactly 19.5 kg of fentanyl (43 lbs) was seized at the Canadian border, less than 1% of the total seized at the Mexican border (21,148 lbs). In terms of illegal migration, US Customs and Border Patrol apprehended just under 24,000 illegal migrants coming into the US from Canada (Canada apprehended a greater number trying to sneak into Canada from the US, so the flow of illegals from Canada to the US was actually below zero). By contrast, on the Mexican border, about 1.5 million migrants were arrested by US authorities. Again, the Canadian border “problem” was about 1% of the total of migrants on the southern border. (I am not trying to trash Mexico but simply demonstrate how the rationale put forward to impose the tariffs on both countries is wildly disproportionate when it comes to Canada). How can Trump with a straight face use this “national emergency” as an excuse to try to cripple the economy of a friendly neighbour, an ally, and the largest customer for manufactured US goods globally? (Canada is the top export market for 34 states). Because he can, I guess.

It is apparent that facts have not been allowed to get in the way of what appears to be a personal vendetta. In fact, it appears that Trump is convinced in his own mind that Canada should not exist as a nation. His repetitive and insulting trolling of Prime Minister Trudeau as “Governor” Trudeau and the belief that Canada should become the 51st state is both tiresome and insulting. (Parenthetically, if Canadians ever agreed to become part of the US, why should Canadians settle for just two Senators? After all, the Province of Ontario has a larger population than 46 of the 50 US states, not to mention that Canada is the second largest country on the planet geographically). In reluctantly announcing retaliatory tariffs, which will hurt American workers and consumers, Justin Trudeau made a plea to Americans, recalling the famous words of John F. Kennedy;

“Geography has made us neighbours, history has made us friends, economics has made us partners and necessity has made us allies.”

These wise words are worth recalling. It is estimated that the tariffs, if sustained, will tip Canada into recession, increase the unemployment rate, shave several points off GDP and lead to a further drop in the Canadian dollar. As Ontario Premier Doug Ford put it, “he’s coming after our families and our jobs”. There will be negative impact on the US economy as well, but the unanswered question is “why would you want to deliberately destabilize your friend and ally, best customer and neighbour?”. Is it not in the interests of the US to have a prosperous, reliable, stable and friendly neighbour on its northern border? I would have thought so.

The current situation causes me both great sadness and repressed anger. Sadness because, like many Canadians, I have spent considerable time in the US and in the company of Americans. I grew up not too far from the border like many Canadians, so US television was part of my mispent youth. I attended grad school in the US. I have taken a number of holidays in various parts of the US. During my years on many foreign postings in Canada’s foreign service, I worked with and cooperated closely with my US colleagues in similarly located American embassies. Later I worked for a US company and had, and still have, many American friends and former colleagues. I have never detected any animosity toward Canada or Canadians. Thus I simply cannot believe that when he was elected, Donald Trump was given a mandate to go after Canada. But that is what he has done.

As I said at the beginning of this post, there is not much here related to copyright–but I needed to get this off my chest. I hope that saner heads will prevail, but much damage has already been done in Canada to the goodwill and trust that has long existed between Canadians and Americans. I wish it were otherwise. Maybe one day it will be again.

© Hugh Stephens, 2025.

Just before posting this, news reports indicated that President Trump had agreed to pause the imposition of tariffs on Canadian goods for 30 days after speaking with Prime Minister Trudeau. They were to have gone into effect tomorrow (February 4). Earlier he did the same for Mexico. While a temporary reprieve, this really doesn’t change much.